Numbers lie. Feelings don’t.
The economic data released last week tells a story our gut has been whispering for months. The US economy shrank by 0.3% in Q1 — the largest GDP drop since 2022. Meanwhile, jobless claims jumped to 241,000, up 18,000 from the previous week. These cold statistics finally confirm what many Americans have been sensing in their daily lives. The April jobs report was strong with 177,000 jobs but companies have announced hiring freezes and the latest rumors from recruiters is that companies are holding back to see how the trade war pans out. May’s jobs report will likely be down and April’s may be revised downward too.
What in the 1930s is going on? It’s another Vibecession.
The official recession may or may not be here, but the psychology of recession arrived long ago. Consumer pessimism has been climbing steadily, fueled by inflation that outpaced wage growth for too long. Now Trump’s tariff agenda and austerity measures are adding new layers of uncertainty.
I find myself fascinated not by the economic indicators themselves, but by the gap between official declarations and lived experience. Recessions have official start and end dates, determined by economists who analyze data months after the fact. But for real people, recessions begin when anxiety about the future starts…
